Suzuka Saturday: Verstappen’s Masterclass, Mercedes Momentum & Rain on the Radar

The Art of a Generational Lap

You Can Never Discount Max Verstappen

No matter the conditions, no matter the car—Max Verstappen finds a way. The pole lap he delivered at Suzuka for the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix was nothing short of generational. It felt like the completion of the lap he never got to finish in Jeddah 2021.

Down in the first two sectors, Verstappen and the RB21 came alive through the final corners—a testament to both talent and trust. The car was reportedly tricky all session, with Max even complaining of gear issues in Q1. But Verstappen doesn’t just drive the car—he transforms it. He gets it into the perfect operating window, no matter how small that window is.

Many have labeled Red Bull the fourth-fastest car this weekend, but that’s misleading. At worst, they’re neck and neck with Mercedes. If George Russell hadn’t misjudged tyre prep for his final Q3 run, we might’ve seen a different front row. His first Q3 lap was genuinely impressive.

Yes, the car is built around Max—but it’s Max who brings it to life.

Yuki Tsunoda: A Reasonable Gap, An Unreasonable Call

Yuki Tsunoda qualified just 0.686s behind Verstappen. In a midfield as competitive as this one, that’s a solid showing. He was fast in practice, but as always, it’s tough to judge practice due to setup experiments and differing run plans.

Still, considering Liam Lawson was benched after only two races, Yuki’s P15 finish raises eyebrows. Lawson has more experience and arguably more potential—and yet he’s the one out of the seat. The inconsistency in how drivers are evaluated remains one of Red Bull’s more frustrating traits.

Ferrari: Balance Lost, Performance Missing

Ferrari’s SF-25 simply doesn’t look ready. From practice to qualifying, the car seemed unstable—particularly for Lewis Hamilton, who battled understeer throughout the session.

In hindsight, Ferrari might regret not evolving their 2024 chassis further. It was easier to drive and more compliant across setups. The 2025 car feels fragile, with a very narrow performance window. Despite that, Charles Leclerc pulled out what was likely the absolute maximum—and Hamilton wasn’t far behind.

Sunday is the real test. Can Ferrari recover with race pace and tyre life, or will their struggles continue?

Mercedes: Steady Climb, And a Statement from Kimi

Mercedes delivered a solid qualifying session. George Russell took P5, but the bigger story may be Kimi Antonelli, who slotted into P6—just behind his teammate.

The rookie is closing the gap. It’s a quiet, relentless pressure that’s hard to ignore. If this trend continues, Mercedes could find themselves in the same internal crossroads Red Bull faced with Ricciardo and Verstappen.

One of the most memorable moments of qualifying was Isack Hadjar outqualifying his home hero Lewis Hamilton—in front of the Japanese crowd. It’s a major confidence boost for the young Frenchman and a surreal twist in a deeply symbolic weekend.

Liam Lawson: A Rebuild in Progress

Lawson will start P14. On paper, it’s underwhelming—but this is a driver still finding his footing again. His confidence was rattled by Red Bull’s abrupt handling of his 2024 campaign, and now he’s trying to reset under enormous scrutiny.

He’ll need a clean race to rebuild rhythm—and possibly prove that the problem was never him, but the situation he was placed in.

Weather Watch: Suzuka’s Forecast of Chaos

The current forecast? Wet to dry. Suzuka in the rain is legendary—but also treacherous. The most likely scenario is a slippery start that transitions into dry running. Think Australia 2025 levels of unpredictability.

This plays right into the hands of teams that manage transitions well and can adapt on the fly.

If it stays mostly dry, McLaren might dominate. Their car is the most well-rounded on the grid, thriving in high-speed corners and maintaining balance over stints. If there’s anyone positioned for a clean, controlled win—it’s them.

Bold Prediction Box

Winner: George Russell

He’s looked dialed in all weekend. If the conditions go sideways and Mercedes nails strategy, Russell could pull off a stunning win.

Podium Dark Horse: Kimi Antonelli

In a chaotic race, you need calm. Antonelli has shown maturity beyond his years. A maiden podium is not out of the question.

Safety Car Count: 2

With variable conditions, expect incidents—especially at the Degners and Spoon Curve.

Driver to Watch: Lando Norris

McLaren is the car to beat in dry conditions, and if Lando stays out of trouble, he could emerge as the quiet threat.

Tomorrow, expect the unexpected. Suzuka is a temple of speed, but when the rain comes—it becomes a theatre of chaos. Stay strapped in.

See you in Bahrain!

-Lights Out